Introduction:

What is the future of energy storage if we don’t rely on lithium? As the global demand for sustainable energy solutions accelerates, the search for viable alternatives to lithium-ion batteries has gained urgency. Sodium-ion batteries with their potential to cut down costs and be more resilient to supply chains, have emerged as a potential contender. However, the questions about their energy density, price competitiveness, and scalability remain still. A recent study conducted by Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability and the SLAC-Stanford Battery Center, through their STEER program, delves into these challenges and opportunities, thereby providing a roadmap for sodium-ion technology’s role in the energy transition. This interesting subject is covered in the article, we have also explored market trends and thought-provoking questions. So, let’s begin.

Standford sodium-ion battery study says the technology will need more breakthroughs to compete.

Standford University study says that sodium-ion batteries will need more breakthroughs to compete with lithium-ion(Li-ion) batteries. They are considered the most promising alternatives to lithium-ion batteries due to their lower manufacturing costs and more resilient supply chains. However there are challenges, the sodium-ion batteries store less energy per pound compared to lithium-ion batteries. So, even though the material costs are cheaper, due to the storage issues, the cost per unit of energy is comparatively higher. Now this poses a significant hurdle for widespread commercial adoption unless breakthroughs in research improve their performance and storage issues.

A notable new initiative for energy solutions:

A recent study conducted by a collaboration between the Standford Doerr School of Sustainability’s Precourt Institute for Energy and the SLAC-Standford Battery Center sheds light on the potential of sodium-ion batteries.

Their research incorporated a program that is named STEER(Standford Technology, Economics and Energy Roadmap), a program that assesses new energy technologies and advises on where to invest and innovate. The massive study evaluated over 6000 scenarios to evaluate the conditions under which sodium-ion batteries might compete with lithium-ion alternatives.

Since the price of lithium-ion batteries rose for the first time in 2022, the study’s lead author, Adrian Yao, who is also the founder of STEER highlighted the importance of the research in the recent events. The increase in the pricing has sparked discussions about alternatives like sodium-ion. He also emphasized that sodium-ion batteries hold potential, the only challenge is the path to price competitiveness remains uncertain.

Lessons learnt from the study:

Rising lithium-ion costs spur demand for alternatives:

The rising price of lithium-ion batteries for the first time in 2022 has triggered an urgent need to explore alternative battery chemistries.

Lesson: external market factors such as resource scarcity and supply chain disruptions play a crucial role in shaping energy storage markets. It also highlights the importance of diversifying battery technology options to reduce reliance on critical materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel.

Sodium-ion batteries show promise but face challenges:

Sodium-ion batteries hold considerable potential due to their reliance on abundant and low-cost sodium. However, their path to price competitiveness remains unclear.

Lesson: While sodium-ion batteries could address material shortages and cost issues, their energy densities and performance must improve significantly to compete with lithium-ion batteries in high-demand applications.

The role of economic and technological modelling:

The STEER program evaluated over 6,000 scenarios to understand under what conditions sodium-ion batteries might compete with lithium-ion alternatives. This comprehensive approach provides a clear framework for decision-making.

Lesson: Advanced modelling and scenario analysis are essential for assessing the viability of emerging technologies. This ensures that investments and innovations are strategically aligned with market needs and technological capabilities.

Uncertainty around price competitiveness:

While sodium-ion batteries have cost-saving potential, there is uncertainty around achieving economies of scale and improving performance metrics remains a significant challenge.

Lesson: Achieving price competitiveness requires not just technological advancements but also coordinated efforts in scaling production, refining supply chains, and thereby creating market demand.

Sodium-ion’s niche role in the market:

The study suggests that sodium-ion batteries may not fully replace lithium-ion batteries but could serve specific market segments such as grid storage and low-cost applications.

Lesson: Technologies should be tailored to their strengths rather than positioned as one-size-fits-all solutions. Sodium-ion batteries could complement lithium-ion batteries by targeting applications where cost and resource availability are more critical than energy density.

What are the Challenges and industry involvement?

Sodium-ion batteries and lithium-ion batteries are on either side of the battle. The key point to consider is increasing the energy density while avoiding the usage of expensive materials such as nickel. Therefore, the developers must focus on this factor.

The current designs heavily rely on nickel and that is the reason for the rising costs. Achieving energy densities comparable to lithium-iron-phosphate batteries is another crucial goal.

Market trends and comparing Sodium-ion vs. Lithium-ion batteries:

The lithium-ion battery market has experienced remarkable growth over the past two decades and has been driven by the surging demand for electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and grid energy storage. By 2023, the lithium-ion battery market was at a value of about $100 billion and it is expected to grow with a growth rate of 13% over the next decade. The dominance of lithium-ion batteries stems from high energy densities, scalability and decades of optimization in terms of design and production. This is because lithium-ion batteries store more energy per unit of weight, which is a crucial factor for EVs and portable devices. Also, decades of R&D and economies of scale have significantly reduced costs. You can also observe their utilization across applications from smartphones to renewable energy storage.

In contrast, the sodium-ion battery market is still in its nascent stages but is still gaining traction. Experts project that the sodium-ion battery market will grow to $2-$4 billion by 2030 if the developers address technological and production challenges are addressed.

Sodium-ion batteries rely on abundant and widely available sodium instead of lithium, thereby offering a potential solution to supply chain and cost concerns. Sodium is one of the most plentiful elements on Earth, which reduces material costs and supply chain risks. However, there are some technological hurdles which should be addressed for them to become a low-cost alternative, especially for grid energy storage.

Leading market players in the industry such as CATL, and BYD have announced their plans to scale up sodium-ion battery manufacturing at lower costs. Additionally, sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a strong candidate for applications such as grid energy storage, where the cost and resource abundance are more critical than energy density.

Looking ahead at the bigger picture: Supply chains and Geopolitical factors:

STEER’s study has benefitted greatly from the input provided by industry experts in battery manufacturing, electric vehicles and energy storage systems. One of the co-directors of STEER, Sally Benson explained that the industry feedback ensured that the study itself is highly relevant to the real world challenges and opportunities.

The study also emphasized the importance of diversifying energy storage technologies. Relying on lithium-ion batteries exposes the industry to economic and security risks. For instance, China controls over 90% of the global supply of graphite which is a key material in lithium-ion batteries and therefore it imposed restrictions on its exports. Supply chain disruptions like this could agitate interest in alternatives such as sodium-ion batteries.

 STEER plans to expand its research into critical areas of energy technologies such as long-storage or long-duration storage, hydrogen, and industrial decarbonization. The approach of the program combines commercial deployment experience, technology road mapping and system thinking to guide the research and investment in the most promising directions.

They aim to focus on holistic solutions that consider the entire energy ecosystem, and thereby identify the most effective pathways for advancing the global energy transition.

Closing thoughts, but opening questions:

The collaboration between Standford’s Doerr School of Sustainability, the Precourt Institute for Energy and the SLAC-Stanford Battery Center provides a roadmap for sodium-ion batteries as a potential challenger to lithium-ion dominance. While Sodium-ion batteries present an opportunity to alleviate reliance on scarce and costly materials, their current limitations energy density and uncertainty in achieving price parity- highlight the challenges of transitioning to alternative technologies. Nevertheless, with targeted research, strategic investments, and collaborative innovation, sodium-ion batteries could carve a niche in energy storage markets, especially for grid storage and low-cost applications. But what about the future? Will sodium-ion batteries achieve the technological breakthroughs needed to make them a viable competitor? How will global supply chains for critical materials evolve and what is the role of a policy and industry in accelerating the shift? Can we afford to rely so heavily on lithium-ion or must we act now to diversify? We leave you with questions as these underscore the urgency of exploring alternatives in the race for a sustainable energy future.